Revistes Catalanes amb Accés Obert (RACO)

el futur dels combustibles fòssils a l’escenari de referència de l’agència internacional de l’energia

Mariano Marzo

Resum


The projection of consumption of fossil fuels according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggests that the world demand will continue to expand inexorably, at 1.6% a year, from now until 2030. This trend is based on the prevision of an economic growth of the world Gross Internal Product of 3.2% a year, and a demographic increase of 8.000 millions of inhabitants in 20 years. It is foreseen that demand for oil will pass from 79 to 115 millions of barrels/day (two-thirds of this increase will be due to transportation); that consumption of natural gas will undergo an increase of 70%; and that annual increase of carbon demand will be of 1.4%. Hence, fossil fuels will continue being the main source of primary energy, covering more than 83% of the world demand; concentrated in China and India where demand will represent more than 45% of the total demand. According to the IEA, Earth’s available resources may be sufficient to cover demand. Even though, regarding oil, these previsions are quite uncertain due to the hypothetic increase of strains and instability in exporter countries. Hence, these projections of demand increase make foresee that global emissions of CO2 to the atmosphere will undergo an increase of 62% relative to current levels, that is, about 15 millions of tons more. Consequently, these data put in doubt the commitments recently adopted by many developing countries to reduce the emissions, if there is not a considerable technological revolution that set up rapidly a massive use of alternative energies.

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