Revistes Catalanes amb Accés Obert (RACO)

Diseño y simulación de escenarios de demanda de suelo urbano en ámbitos metropolitanos

F. Aguilera Benavente, W. Plata Rocha, Joaquín Bosque Sendra, Montserrat Gómez Delgado

Resum


The design and development of future explorative external scenarios are useful tools for the spatial planning and even more for the metropolitan planning (Peterson et al, 2003; Pettit y Pullar, 2004; Luca, 2007; Carsjens, 2009). However, spatial planning policy and practices in Spain lack of this instruments (Valenzuela, Aguilera, Soria y Molero, 2008)
This paper shows a System Dynamics-based model designed to estimate urban growth demands in metropolitan areas. This model has been specifically developed for Madrid and Granada metropolitan areas (Spain), where the model has been calibrated.
After the calibration, three future urban growth demands scenarios has been designed and simulated using the model developed. The urban growth demands obtained may be used in later research to spatially locate that demands using spatial simulation models.

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